South Florida Has Cooling Rents Going Into 2026

Quick snapshot: what changed in the last 12–18 months

• Rates eased, not cheap: 30-year fixed ~6.26% (Mortgage News Daily).
• Bonds steady: 10-year near 4.14%; MBS barely stronger.
• Rent cool-off: Miami median ~$3,050, ~8% YoY down (Zumper); ~23k units under construction in Miami-Dade.
• Urban softness: Miami, Miami Beach, Doral, Aventura, Fort Lauderdale showing YoY rent drops; Broward hit hardest.
• Record vacancy: U.S. vacancy at 7.1% (Apartment List).

Income on rentals is flattening or fading. Costs did not get that memo.

Insurance: the silent partner in every deal

Florida is one of the most expensive states for home insurance. Some studies project average annual costs north of $5,700 statewide, with even higher burdens in coastal metros. Drill into South Florida and the gap grows: one carrier survey pegs typical Miami homeowner premiums around $5,315 per year, while inland cities like Ocala sit closer to $1,865.

Condo owners had an even rougher ride. Average premiums for Florida condo units jumped more than 50% in four years, landing near $2,000 by the end of 2024. In Miami-Dade, that number sits closer to $2,300, with separate windstorm coverage posting its own double-digit bumps.

“Stabilizing” ≠ cheap. Florida’s regulator shows only ~1.5% up so far in 2025—but the higher base is locked in. The compounding already happened.

From an investor lens, the risk is less about nonstop 30% hikes every year. The risk is that premiums stayed high, rent stopped rising, and your pro forma never caught up.

Sales data: single-family inventory is climbing

Pull the Florida Realtors monthly detail for October 2025 for single-family homes in the Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach metro:

• Closed single-family sales sit near 3,200.
• Active inventory runs around 16,600 listings.
• Months supply is about 5.6, up from roughly five months in late 2024.
• Median time to contract is 52 days, up from 39 days a year earlier (a 33% jump).
• Median time to sale sits near 91 days.

Translation: buyers have more options, sellers hold less leverage, and a rising share of listings represent owners with a real problem—not a wish price.

Rents no longer bail out sloppy underwriting

During the boom, a thin cash flow model still worked because rent growth outran every mistake. That logic failed.

• Urban drift: Rents easing in core zip codes; concessions rising.
• Vacancy high: 7.1% nationally with more supply landing.
• New supply wave: 23k+ multifamily units still coming in Miami-Dade.
• Expenses locked: Insurance doubled/tripled, taxes reset, reserves tighter.

Revenue is flat or down. Expenses climbed. Debt service stayed heavy. That is the squeeze.

What today’s mortgage rate action really means

Rates dipped after the latest Fed meeting and held that move through the next day. The 30-year fixed national average sits around 6.26%. Bond traders had a solid morning after weaker jobless claims, then finished near unchanged, with the 10-year Treasury hovering just above 4.14%.

The signal is not “cheap money is back.” The signal is “no fresh crisis, no real rescue yet.”

• Sideline buyers re-enter at ~6.2–6.3% but stay rate-sensitive.
• Payment reality: $500k loan still far above 2021’s 3% era.
• No easy-credit lift: Don’t price in cap-rate compression from financing.

So the rate story is neutral to mildly helpful. The insurance and rent story is the real driver of distress.

Who breaks first in South Florida

• Over-leveraged small landlords: Bought in 2021–2023 with thin spreads, used seller’s insurance/tax numbers, never stress-tested for flat rent, now see renewals that wipe out cash flow.
• Older condo owners in C-class or tired B-class buildings: Hit with special assessments and higher insurance while tenants stay price sensitive.
• Mom-and-pop single-family owners east of I-95: Old policies finally repriced or non-renewed; new quotes double the old rate; the asset looks valuable on paper but bleeds monthly.
• Short-term rental hosts with weak occupancy: Gross rent looks high, net income gets crushed by insurance, cleaning, management, and soft demand.

These owners become tomorrow’s listings, off-market leads, or partners. Facing foreclosure? We can help →

How I underwrite South Florida deals now

If a deal survives this stress test, it is worth chasing. If it dies on paper, let a competitor learn that lesson in real time. Take one of your properties and run this set of assumptions today—before the renewal email lands. See which South Florida markets we buy in →

What this means if you own rentals in South Florida

• Income is flattening or sliding in many submarkets.
• Insurance, taxes, and compliance costs sit on a much higher base than five years ago.
• Mortgage rates eased off their peak yet remain elevated enough to keep buyers picky.
• Single-family inventory and months supply are rising, so buyers can walk away and choose another house.

You either adjust your strategy or the market adjusts it for you. That might mean raising standards on what you buy, selling marginal assets and recycling equity into stronger locations, or selling to avoid the landlord squeeze with roof, window, or mitigation upgrades where grants or credits exist.

Headline for every model, offer, and stress test: rising insurance costs in South Florida are not easing, so treat them as the main risk in your plan. Learn how we navigate this landscape →